A mutual primal-dual linear programming algorithm

A new primal-dual linear programming algorithm is exhibited. A proof is given that optimal solutions to both primal and dual problems (when such solutions exist) are found in a finite number of steps by this algorithm. A numerical example is included to illustrate the method.     

Encircled by enemies: Stalin's Perceptions of the capitalist world, 1918 – 1941

The article examines Stalin's intelligence on the capitalist world, including materials from military archives, diplomatic archives, and Stalin's private papers. It explores how these materials were collected, interpreted and shaped by Stalin's prejudices. It concludes that, from the end of the Civil War to the Nazi invasion, Stalin and the Soviet leadership believed that the Soviet Union was under a nearly constant threat of invasion from shifting coalitions of capitalist powers. No such threat existed until the late 1930s, but Stalin's perceptions have important implications for our understanding of Soviet foreign and domestic politics in the interwar period.     

Damage accumulation and probability of kill for gun and target engagements

Determination of the gunfire probability of kill against a target requires two parameters to be taken into consideration: the likelihood of hitting the target (susceptibility) and the conditional probability of kill given a hit (vulnerability). Two commonly used methods for calculating the latter probability are (1) treating each hit upon the target independently, and (2) setting an exact number of hits to obtain a target kill. Each of these methods contains an implicit assumption about the probability distribution of the number of hits‐to‐kill. Method (1) assumes that the most likely kill scenario occurs with exactly one hit, whereas (2) implies that achieving a precise number of hits always results in a kill. These methods can produce significant differences in the predicted gun effectiveness, even if the mean number of hits‐to‐kill for each distribution is the same. We therefore introduce a new modeling approach with a more general distribution for the number of hits‐to‐kill. The approach is configurable to various classes of damage mechanism and is able to match both methods (1) and (2) with a suitable choice of parameter. We use this new approach to explore the influence of various damage accumulation models on the predicted effectiveness of weapon‐target engagements.     

Book Reviews

Strategic Geography. By Hugh Faringdon. Routledge, London (1989), ISBN 0-415-00980-4, £40.00

Field Artillery and Firepower. By J. B. A. Bailey. The Military Press, Oxford (1989), ISBN 0-85066-810-7, £25.00 (hardback), ISBN 0-85066-811-5, £14.50 (paperback)

U.S.-Soviet Security Cooperation. Edited by Alexander L. George, Philip J. Farley and Alexander Dallin. Oxford University Press, New York (1988), ISBN 0-19-505397-4, £30.00 (hardback), $19.95 (paperback)

Non-production by Industry of Chemical-warfare Agents: Technical Verification under a Chemical Weapons Convention. Edited by S. J. Lundin. SIPRI/Oxford University Press, Oxford (1988), ISBN 0-19-829129-9, £19.50

Ireland's Terrorist Trauma: Interdisciplinary Perspectives. Edited by Alan O'Day and Yonah Alexander. Harvester Wheatsheaf, Hemel Hempstead (1989), ISBN 7450-049003, £27.50 ($48.65)

Pilots and Rebels: the Use of Aircraft in Unconventional Warfare 1918-1988. By P. A. Towle. Brassey's (UK), London (1989), ISBN 0-08-036712-7, £29.95 ($53.95)     

Statistical tests for exponential service from m/g/1 waiting-time data

From an original motivation in quantitative inventory modeling, we develop methods for testing the hypothesis that the service times of an M/G/1 queue are exponentially distributed, given a sequence of observations of customer line and/or system waits. The approaches are mostly extensions of the well-known exponential goodness-of-fit test popularized by Gnedenko, which results from the observation that the sum of a random exponential sample is Erlang distributed and thus that the quotient of two independent exponential sample means is F distributed.     

A queueing system with multiple service time distributions

This paper explores a modification of the output discipline for the Poisson input, exponential output, single channel, first-come, first-served queueing system. Instead, the service time distribution of customers beginning service when alone in the system is considered different from that governing service times of all other customers. More specifically, the service times of lone customers are governed by a one parameter gamma distribution, while the service times of all other customers are exponentially ajstributed. The generating function for the steady-state probsbilities, n_j = Pr { j customers in system at an arbitrary point of departure}, of the imbedded chain, {X_n/X_n = number in system after nth customer is serviced}, is obtained, and the steady-state probabilities, themselves, are found in closed form.     

Queues with stochastic service rates

The purpose of this paper is to explore an extension of the output discipline for the Poisson input, general output, single channel, first-come, first-served queueing system. The service time parameter, μ, is instead considered a random variable, M. In other words, the service time random variable, T, is to be conditioned by a parameter random variable, M. Therefore, if the distribution function of M is denoted by F_M(μ) and the known conditional service time distribution as B(t |_μ), then the unconditional service distribution is given by B(t) = Pr {T ≤ t}. = ∫_-∞^∞ B(t |_μ) dF_M(μ). Results are obtained that characterize queue size and waiting time using the imbedded Markov chain approach. Expressions are derived for the expected queue length and Laplace-Stieltjes transforms of the steady-state waiting time when conditional service times are exponential. More specific results are found for three special distributions of M: (1) uniform on [1.2]; (2) two-point; and (3) gamma.     

Quarrelsome committees in US defense acquisition: the KC-X case

When the US Air Force set out to acquire a new aerial tanker (the KC-X), two highly suitable alternatives were offered. What could have been a short and simple source selection turned into a prolonged embarrassment. The original selection of 100 leased KC-767s was made in May 2003. But the KC-46 is expected to be operational in 2017 – more than a decade later. Our primary purpose here is to narrate and explain key events in the KC-X program. We search for useful paradigms, based in part on the US Government being better viewed as a quarrelsome committee than a monopsonist. In addition, we consider what this case might tell us about the US defense acquisition system.